Possible scenario
Bosnia Crisis Deepens
21% Chance
The lobbying allegations feed into Bosnia's unresolved constitutional standoff, especially after Dodik's election success despite legal constraints. Western officials consider stronger use of the Dayton framework if Republika Srpska institutions obstruct state authorities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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