Possible scenario
Counter-Relay Campaign
27% Chance
Russia uses the shootdown as proof that Ukrainian high-altitude communications relays can be detected and engaged. The near-term result is a sharper contest between Ukrainian communications improvisation and Russian electronic warfare, air defense, and optical tracking units.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- RTX+0.5%
- SPCX-0.5%
- PLTR+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.