Possible scenario
Pressure Stays Rhetorical
40% Chance
The White House escalates public criticism and internal reviews of Fed officials appointed before Trump, but does not attempt a new removal after the Supreme Court's June ruling. Jerome Powell and the Board continue to frame decisions as data-dependent, limiting the immediate institutional damage.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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