Possible scenario
Courts Reaffirm Protections
20% Chance
Fed officials or outside plaintiffs seek rapid judicial relief, and courts signal that the June Supreme Court decision sharply limits White House options. This outcome would reduce the chance of a near-term Board shake-up and support confidence in the Fed's institutional independence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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