Possible scenario
Administrative Campaign Escalates
25% Chance
The administration looks for alternative legal theories after the Supreme Court blocked direct Fed firings, including ethics referrals, subpoenas, and public accusations against specific governors or regional Fed presidents. Even without an immediate vacancy, investors treat the move as a more serious challenge to Fed independence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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