Possible scenario
Broader Visa Crackdown
20% Chance
The Microsoft dispute becomes a springboard for broader enforcement against large employers that use H-1B and employment-based green-card programs. This would shift the event from single-company political risk to sector-level labor-cost and hiring risk.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.5%
- Business Services -1.7%
Tickers
- MSFT-3.3%
- AMZN-2.5%
- GOOG-2.4%
- META-2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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