Possible scenario
Unrest Spreads Nationally
22% Chance
The detention of the CJP founder becomes a rallying point for opposition parties, student groups and unions. Large demonstrations expand beyond Delhi into Kolkata, Patna, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, forcing state governments and central forces into a more confrontational posture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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