Possible scenario
Security Crackdown Holds
38% Chance
The Modi government and Ministry of Home Affairs keep the Cockroach Janta Party founder in custody while security forces prevent large demonstrations in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. The Election Commission of India proceeds with the nationwide re-registration timetable, arguing the 130 million deletions are provisional and appealable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Business Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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