Possible scenario
Post-Midterm Pressure
25% Chance
Israel avoids action before the US vote but preserves the option to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure after the election. This outcome fits the timeline of repeated Israeli warnings and the May watchdog assessment that prior strikes delayed, but did not eliminate, Iran's capabilities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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