Possible scenario
Denial Holds
50% Chance
Israel maintains that no unilateral strike on Iran is planned before the US midterms, aligning with Donald Trump's public rejection of a pre-election attack. The most likely path is continued deterrent signaling, intelligence monitoring, and private US-Israel coordination without overt military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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