Possible scenario
Denial Breaks
15% Chance
Israeli denials prove tactical rather than definitive, and a limited operation occurs before or very near the US midterms. This is less likely after Trump's public statement, but prior Israeli strikes and repeated warnings keep it a meaningful tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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