Possible scenario
Ukraine Expands Strikes
20% Chance
Kyiv interprets the successful base missile hit as proof that Russian tactical aviation can be degraded on the ground. Follow-on attacks pressure Russia to move Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft farther from Ukraine, reducing glide-bomb sortie rates in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Tickers
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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