Possible scenario
Escalating Strike Cycle
25% Chance
Moscow treats the destruction of six Su-34M bombers as a serious embarrassment and expands attacks on Ukrainian command, energy, and defense-industrial targets. The probability of further Ukrainian long-range strikes and Russian retaliation rises, creating a modest risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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