Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation
45% Chance
Russia answers the loss of the Su-34M aircraft with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and military logistics, but avoids strikes that would directly implicate NATO territory. The conflict remains intense but within the established pattern of retaliation and counter-retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- LMT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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