Possible scenario
Persistent Harassment
32% Chance
Houthi attacks and attempted strikes continue, but Saudi air defenses prevent a major casualty event or sustained oil outage. The main damage is to investor confidence, aviation reliability, and the credibility of large in-person events in Riyadh.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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