Possible scenario
DOJ Escalates Pressure
20% Chance
If California refuses or gives an incomplete response, DOJ could escalate through subpoenas, enforcement filings, or threats tied to election-administration funding. This would fit the Trump administration's broader push to federalize voter-roll checks despite adverse lower-court rulings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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