Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
15% Chance
The evacuation creates pressure for a safety-focused diplomatic channel rather than immediate military action. Russia, China, Oman, and the IAEA push Tehran toward a limited compromise that lowers the risk of a strike near nuclear infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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