Possible scenario
Crisis Stays Contained
45% Chance
Russia's completed evacuation is treated as a precaution rather than a signal of an imminent strike on Bushehr. Israel keeps pressure on Iran's nuclear program, but Washington, Moscow, and the IAEA work to prevent any action near an operating civilian reactor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.