Possible scenario
Demand Slowdown Deepens
25% Chance
A more bearish path develops if Wells Fargo's downgrade becomes part of a broader reassessment of central-bank and ETF demand. The market increasingly treats the January 2026 move above $5,500 as a speculative overshoot rather than a durable new equilibrium.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.3%
Tickers
- NGT-3.6%
- -3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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