Possible scenario
Russian Custody Advances
35% Chance
Iran accepts the Russian bid in principle, judging that Moscow custody can reduce immediate pressure from Europe while preserving leverage over Washington. The likely structure is a phased transfer or escrow arrangement involving Rosatom, the IAEA, and Iranian Atomic Energy Organization officials.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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