Possible scenario
Deal Breaks Down
25% Chance
The Russian custody proposal collapses because Iran refuses to transfer material, Russia offers insufficient verification, or Europe rejects Moscow as a trusted custodian. The outcome revives fears that Iran's 60% stockpile will keep growing under renewed sanctions pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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