Possible scenario
Storm intensifies further
15% Chance
A follow-on coronal mass ejection or stronger-than-expected magnetic orientation prolongs the disturbance and turns a temporary communications problem into a broader operational shock. This is less likely, but solar storms can evolve quickly once the CME interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -3.2%
- Technology -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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