Possible scenario
Rates Choke Transactions
30% Chance
The recent acceleration in home prices proves difficult to sustain because affordability is stretched and mortgage rates remain near cycle highs. Prices may still rise year over year, but sales activity weakens further and buyer demand deteriorates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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