Possible scenario
Rate Relief Revives Activity
15% Chance
A less likely but important upside case is that Treasury yields retreat and mortgage rates ease, allowing sidelined buyers to re-enter the market. This would lift transaction volumes and benefit builders, mortgage originators, and housing platforms.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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