Possible scenario
Inventory Keeps Prices Firm
45% Chance
The most likely path is that constrained resale inventory keeps national home prices rising even with mortgage rates above 7%. Rate lock-in remains a dominant force, limiting listings and keeping price growth firmer than transaction volumes would normally imply.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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