Possible scenario
Fiscal Deal Stabilizes
35% Chance
The government forces a deficit-cutting budget through the Assemblée Nationale using constitutional tools and survives a no-confidence vote. Investors still demand a premium on OATs, but the immediate panic eases as France avoids a near-term funding rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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