Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
28% Chance
Murphy’s allegation gains traction with Democrats on the Senate Armed Services and Appropriations committees. Hearings or document demands create modest uncertainty around the Pentagon’s Iran-war supplemental request, but the issue remains contained within Washington.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- GD-0.3%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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