Possible scenario
Access Deal Emerges
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated oversight accommodation rather than a full constitutional clash. DoD grants some access to Sen. Chris Murphy or committee staff while preserving operational secrecy around Iran-related missions and Qatar basing arrangements.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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