Possible scenario
Arctic Tension Escalates
20% Chance
Moscow and Beijing treat the permanent U.S. basing arrangement as a strategic challenge in the High North. The most likely form is rhetorical escalation, military exercises, and diplomatic retaliation rather than direct confrontation, but markets price a modest geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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