Possible scenario
Recoveries Gain Traction
35% Chance
The administration converts part of the $260 billion fraud estimate into documented overpayments, settlements, payment suspensions, and clawbacks. Courts and Congress tolerate the effort because it is framed as antifraud enforcement rather than a wholesale entitlement cut.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -1.0%
- Business Services +0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.