Possible scenario
Legal Backlash Intensifies
25% Chance
The fraud estimate becomes entangled with the earlier dismissal of inspectors general and threats against Medicaid watchdogs. Injunctions, state lawsuits, and due-process rulings limit near-term recoveries and increase policy uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.8%
- Business Services -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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