Possible scenario
Court Blocks Start
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the existing work halt remains controlling and the Nov. 15 redesign start is blocked or narrowed by the federal judge. The recent finding that tree cutting was rushed at Trump's behest gives challengers a strong procedural basis to argue that agencies cannot restart work without fuller review.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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