Possible scenario
Routine Rally Pause
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Stoxx 600 decline proves to be a routine consolidation after a three-day rally. Investors remain cautious on rates and inflation, but the move does not become a broader risk-off episode.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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