Possible scenario
Dip Buying Resumes
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that investors treat the 1% fall as a buying opportunity after the strong start to October in US equities. Softer rate expectations or resilient US data could quickly restore risk appetite.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
- Technology +1.2%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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