Possible scenario
RBA Pause Repriced
45% Chance
The August trimmed mean print gives the Reserve Bank of Australia room to pause after its September rate increase. Markets treat the data as evidence that underlying inflation is easing, even if Governor Michele Bullock keeps a restrictive bias.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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