Possible scenario
Inflation Setback Returns
25% Chance
The August slowdown proves partly temporary, with rents, insurance, utilities or services inflation reaccelerating in later releases. Investors revive the stagflation narrative that the RBA highlighted when it lifted rates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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