Possible scenario
Growth Weakness Dominates
20% Chance
The inflation slowdown is interpreted less as a clean victory and more as a sign that demand is weakening after cumulative rate increases. Bond yields fall, but cyclical equities struggle if investors focus on earnings and credit risks.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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