Possible scenario
Waiver Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the indefinite waiver remains in place while the White House argues that 500% tariffs would damage relations with India and China and raise fuel costs. Congress protests, but no binding reversal clears both chambers quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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