Possible scenario
Tariff Threat Repackaged
20% Chance
The administration uses the waiver as leverage rather than abandoning Russia pressure altogether. Instead of blanket 500% tariffs, the White House negotiates voluntary caps, import disclosures, or targeted sanctions on shipping and finance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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