Possible scenario
Repeat Incursion Escalates
17% Chance
A follow-on violation or unsafe maneuver would shift the event from a single probe to a more serious pattern of coercive testing. This would increase the probability of NATO emergency consultations and a sharper short-term risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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