Possible scenario
NATO Reinforces Flank
27% Chance
NATO treats the Mi-8 breach as another readiness test and modestly increases air-policing and surveillance activity along Poland’s eastern frontier. The response remains defensive and procedural, focused on radar coverage, fighter readiness, and ground-based air defense.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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