Possible scenario
Incident Remains Contained
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is a controlled military and diplomatic response: Polish fighters scramble, NATO is briefed, and Warsaw files a protest without further military action. This fits the recent pattern of Russian or Belarus-linked airspace probes that test readiness but stop short of direct combat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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