Possible scenario
Liquidity Flywheel Accelerates
45% Chance
Coinbase's unified regulated derivatives pool becomes a liquidity advantage, attracting market makers, asset managers, and offshore-to-U.S. flow previously split across venues. The most likely path is steady institutional adoption rather than an immediate monopoly, with higher take rates in options and perpetual futures partly offset by incentives paid to liquidity providers.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- COIN+6.1%
- CME-1.4%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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