Possible scenario
Macro Selloff Deepens
20% Chance
A more adverse scenario is that the weekly decline becomes the start of a broader risk-off move. Hot inflation commentary, higher real-yield expectations or AI-positioning stress forces another round of selling in the most crowded technology names.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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