Possible scenario
Dip-Buying Rebound
38% Chance
The most likely path is a partial rebound after the 5.5% weekly decline, as systematic dip-buying, short-covering and lower bond-yield anxiety stabilize the Nasdaq 100. Investors remain cautious about AI valuations, but the selloff does not immediately turn into a broader liquidation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.