Possible scenario
Choppy Rotation Continues
30% Chance
The selloff evolves into a rotation rather than a market-wide break. Investors cut exposure to expensive AI and software names while reallocating toward financials, staples, healthcare and other lower-duration areas.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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