Possible scenario
FOMC Aligns Hawkish
25% Chance
Other senior Fed officials validate Musalem's position, making the hawkish message look less like an individual view and more like an emerging Committee bias. Markets move from pricing a risk of hikes to pricing a more credible tightening path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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