Possible scenario
Limited Corridor Disruption
38% Chance
Ukraine pauses parts of the Odesa-Chornomorsk shipping corridor while navy and port authorities check for additional mines. This is the most likely path because mine incidents in the Black Sea have often led to temporary inspections rather than a full halt to exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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