Possible scenario
Appeals Fight Escalates
22% Chance
The dispute moves quickly into emergency appellate litigation, potentially testing how far the White House can go after a district judge has already blocked similar exclusions. This remains a legal-institutional conflict rather than a broad economic shock, but a defiance narrative could briefly lift political-risk hedging.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.