Truce Becomes Framework

Washington and Beijing turn the U.S. proposal into a formal six-month extension covering tariff pauses, rare-earth licensing channels, and a first AI incident line. This is the most likely path because both sides already restarted AI and rare-earth talks before the summit and have incentives to avoid a renewed tariff shock.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.